Logical Approach
As we have done for many seasons we will have selections on both Sides and Totals in every Bowl game, using a five tiered scale to indicate the strength of selections. Here's how the Star ratings relate to the strength of the recommendations/opinions:
Rating Strength of Selection Units or % of Bankroll
5 Star Best of the Best - Our Strongest Recommendation 3.0 Units - 5.0% of BR
4 Star A Best Bet - A Strong Recommendation 2.0 Units - 3.0% of BR
3 Star A Solid Opinion - Worth a Regular Play 1.0 Unit - 2.0% of BR
2 Star A Slight Opinion 0.5 Unit - 1.0% of BR
1 Star A Lean - We'll Just Sit and Watch ? ? ?
Eagle Bank Bowl - Washington, DC - Saturday, December 20, 2008
This is one of two Bowl rematches of games played during the regular season. On September 27 Navy, 2-2 at the time, traveled to Wake Forest (3-0). Wake was a 17 point home favorite but was upset by Navy 24-17. Navy outgained Wake 343-313. Navy's offense was strongly rush oriented (292 yards) while Wake relied predominantly on the pass 270 yards). Navy never trailed, leading 17-0 at the half and 24-10 in the fourth quarter. The Midshipmen are in their sixth straight Bowl game and first under coach Ken Niumatalolo as Navy continued their solid play following the departure of ex-coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech after last season. Wake is in their third straight Bowl game. Navy enjoys a solid home regional edge as Annapolis is just a short 37 miles away whereas Wake's fans must travel over 300 to show their support. Clearly Wake played their best football early in the season whereas Navy was much more consistent over the course of the season, winning their final 2 games and 7 of their last 9. Overall, the ACC was very ordinary this season with no team standing out or challenging on the national scene. Historically Wake Forest has fared well when an underdog but not as well when favored. Navy's offense caused problems for Wake the first time around. This is the sixth meeting between these teams over the past decade and prior to Navy's win this season Wake Forest had won all four meeting. So even though this revenge for Wake from earlier this season Navy will still be motivated to show that the earlier win was no fluke. Navy's discipline and the fact they knew long ago that they would be in this Bowl game if the were Bowl eligible makes them the call. Wake Forest had some higher aspirations for post season play. The call is for Navy to pull the mild upset, winning 20-17 and making NAVY a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER a 1 Star Selection
New Mexico Bowl - Albuquerque, NM - Saturday, December 20, 2008
This appears to be the most unattractive of all 34 Bowl matchups but that does not mean it won't be a well played competitive game. These teams appear very evenly matched. Fresno State was expected to have a better season than the one that unfolded whereas Colorado State exceeded expectations in the first season in the post Sonny Lubick era after the long time coach retired after last season. Fresno's 2-10 ATS record shows just how much the Bulldogs underachieved as Fresno averaged being favored by under a TD this season. Neither team distinguished itself when stepping out of conference. Fresno's home 13-10 loss to Wisconsin was not as impressive as it appeared at the time considering how the Badgers struggled for much of the season. The same can be said of their road win at UCLA. Yes, they did rout Rutgers on the road to start the season but Rutgers did not gain their stride until mid season. CSU lost one sided games at Cal and to Colorado. Their most notable win came against Houston. There are more negatives than positives for both of these teams which means there are no real edges. Fresno has an edge in rushing offense while CSU has the passing edge. Fresno State does have more recent Bowl experience including a 40-28 win over Georgia Tech in last season's Humanitarian Bowl. CSU is familiar with the site as a conference affiliate of host New Mexico. One large negative for Fresno is a defense that created on average just 1 turnover per game, ranking ahead of only Washington in that stat. The intangibles tend to favor the underdog as the Rams look at this game as a reward for a season in which steady progress was made. Fresno was thinking in much larger terms when the season began. Colorado State wins 24-20, making Colorado State a 1 Star Selection and the UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
St Petersburg Bowl - St Petersburg, FL - Saturday, December 20, 2008
This Bowl is a major disappointment for South Florida on two fronts. First, the Bulls were expected to contend in what turned out to be a weak Big East conference this season, making their failure to do so all the more disappointing. Secondly, this Bowl is hardly a reward being played basically in their own neighborhood. Even a trip elsewhere within Florida would have generated more interest from the team, fans and alumni and thus the motivation for USF must be called into question. Memphis had a rather nondescript season with no notable wins. Their only win over a Bowl bound team was a 36-30 home win over Southern Miss. Memphis lost to the only other 2 Bowl bound teams they faced, Ole Miss and East Carolina. South Florida can at least claim wins over 3 Bowl bound teams (Kansas, North Carolina State and Connecticut) while losing to Pitt, Cincinnati, Rutgers and West Virginia. South Florida played the tougher schedule with mixed success. The Bulls have a decided edge on defense, allowing 51 yards and 5.5 point per game less than Memphis. South Florida was # 9 nationally against the run, allowing just 98 yards per game. South Florida is clearly the better team but, again, motivation must be questioned. This is one of our least attractive games because of the big pointspread and the overall mediocrity of the teams. Still, taking huge points in a minor Bowl has historically been profitable as its hard to justify such large favoritism for what is essentially an average football team regardless of the opponent or site of game. As such we have a very lukewarm call for the side in this game with a slightly stronger preference for the Total. South Florida gets the win but by only 27-20, making MEMPHIS a 1 Star Selection and the UNDER a 3 Star Selection
Las Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas, NV - Saturday, December 20, 2008
BYU is making their fourth straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl yet the program and team remains enthusiastic about getting to defend the Las Vegas Bowl title they've won the past 2 seasons following a loss 3 years ago. Arizona will be the fourth different Pac 10 opponent for the Cougars who have enjoyed tremendous crowd support the past three years. Arizona makes their first trip to a Bowl game in a decade and they will also have fan support as the Wildcats' men's hoops team is in town to face UNLV earlier in the day. BYU has one of the more dramatic S/U vs ATS records as their 10-2 straight up mark shows tremendous success on the playing field while their 3-8 ATS mark shows underachievement relative to expectations. But what this means is that BYU was heavily favored in most of their games, winning but failing to cover. In fact, BYU averaged being a 14.8 point favorite this season and they fell short of covering by an average of just 1.5 points. Here they are the underdog against a "Bowl Virgin" - a team that has not been to a Bowl in many years. Historically such favorites make for poor propositions when facing an experienced underdog such as the case here. BYU is familiar with the pageantry surrounding the Bowl and likely takes a ho-hum approach. Arizona is more apt to take in the festivities and thus be more distracted than their foes. There is recent history between these teams as they opened the season playing each other in 2006 and 2007. Arizona won the first meeting at home 16-13 as a 6 ½ point favorite. In 2007 BYU exacted revenge as a 3 ½ point underdog, winning 20-7. Both games were very low scoring perhaps because it was the season opener and the defenses were ahead of the more sophisticated offenses. Note that BYU will have been idle for 4 weeks and Arizona for 2 when this game kicks off, perhaps portending another low scoring affair. Both teams averaged 35+ points per game this season while each allowed just over 21 ppg. The weather could be cold with the late afternoon kick off which could work to keep scoring down as well. BYU had the nation's # 7 pass offense. Arizona was # 14 vs the pass. Arizona had slight statistical edges in the ground game although BYU had a lower yards per rush allowed average (3.9 vs 4.2). BYU was 2-0 against Pac 10 teams this season, fortunate to defeat lowly Washington 28-27 (Arizona beat the Huskies 48-14) and followed that win up with a 59-0 home rout of UCLA (Arizona won 31-10 at UCLA0. Arizona sis not step up in class outside Pac 10 play but did face one MWC foe, losing 36-28 at New Mexico (BYU defeated the Lobos 21-3 at home). BYU was thumped in mid season at TCU but then ran off 4 straight wins before losing at arch rival Utah to end the season. Arizona was more spotty down the stretch but did end their season by beating arch rival Arizona State 31-10. BYU has a major edge in Bowl experience and that edge combined with their talent, senior leadership and their program being in a more mature stage gives them the nod. BYU wins 27-23, making BYU a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER also a 3 Star Selection .
